There is a lot of speculation surrounding the expected warm spell towards the end of this week. But what are the facts?
The start of the week will be fine and dry with sunny spells for many in England and Wales. However, a series of weak fronts will move into Scotland and Northern Ireland bringing cloudier weather here with a possibility of light rain, particularly in the northwest.
From Wednesday, as cloudy, rainy and windy conditions continue in the northwest, it will become increasingly hot in the south as the high pressure strengthens. This will bring stable conditions allowing temperatures to build day by day and become warm, if not warm, for some time by Friday.
Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist Dan Rudman said; “Temperatures will rise over the week, becoming well above daytime average by Friday, when many parts of the southern half of the UK are likely to reach 30°C, and even 33°C in places. isolated.”
“This is the first wave of warm weather this year and it is still unusual for the temperature to exceed these values in June. Many areas will also see warm nights with temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper teens. overnight.
Heat wave criteria
A heatwave threshold in the UK is reached when a location experiences a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures reaching or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold. The threshold varies by UK county.
Although parts of England may be able to meet these heat wave criteria, it looks like this period of warm weather will be relatively short-lived. Milder conditions are expected to return later in the weekend with temperatures returning to around average for June as we see cooler air moving across the country from the northwest.
The highest temperature reached in the UK so far this year is 27.5C at Heathrow on May 17. It is still relatively unusual for the temperature to hit the mid 30s in June and you have to go back to 1976 for the highest June temperature recorded in the UK (records are from 1884). 35.6C was reached at Southampton Mayflower Park on June 28, 1976.
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An increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme temperature events and heat waves in recent decades is related to observed global warming and can be attributed to human activity. Previous Met Office research has shown that the frequency of high temperature extreme weather events exceeds low temperature extremes by about nine to one.